East Bay Buyers and the Midterms

What 2018 and 2022 Tell Us

by Josh Dickinson

Should You Wait Until After the Election to Buy?

In the last two midterms, East Bay homes listed around Election Day sold for less than homes listed in September, then prices rebounded in the new year. Election Day is six days away, and this fall mortgage rates are above 7%, so it is worth looking at what happened locally before deciding to wait.

What Happened in 2018 and 2022

These figures cover homes sold in Berkeley, Albany, Kensington and El Cerrito, grouped by when they were listed. The percentage in each row compares it with the row above.

Year

Listed

Homes sold

Average sale price

Median price

Days on market

2026

September, before the election

86

$1.91M

$1.775M

13

2022

First three months of 2023

101

$1.587M (up 22%)

$1.424M

18

2022

Two weeks either side of the election

61

$1.301M (down 16%)

$1.25M

27

2022

September, before the election

84

$1.549M

$1.417M

24

2018

First three months of 2019

219

$1.269M (up 7.6%)

$1.15M

19

2018

Two weeks either side of the election

63

$1.179M (down 9%)

$1.075M

33

2018

September, before the election

84

$1.295M

$1.26M

26

In both cycles, homes listed around Election Day averaged 9% to 16% less than September listings and took 3 to 7 more days to sell. By the first quarter, prices had recovered and homes sold in 18 to 19 days.

Treat this as a pattern, not a prediction. Each election window has only about 60 sales, the groups cover different lengths of time, and winter and spring listings differ from fall ones. Compare prices and days on market rather than sales counts. The 2026 row shows this fall started hotter: September listings averaged 23% above September 2022 and sold in 13 days. Sales of homes listed around this election haven't closed yet.

Why 2026 Needs a Second Look

National studies mostly cover presidential years, and we found little that isolates midterms. They do agree that elections cause a short pause: Redfin's analysis back to 1980 found December sales dipped 1.5% and January recovered 1.5%, and John Burns Research found only 8% of consumers said they were deferring a purchase.

What is different now is the rate. Freddie Mac's 30-year average hit 7.40% in the week ending October 8, the highest since November 2023, and national pending sales fell 7.3% in September, per Newsweek. Bay Area rates were about 7.3% on October 22, according to KTVU. An election cannot lower them.

What It Means for East Bay Buyers

  • The weeks around the election have favored buyers locally. In both midterms, prices were lower and homes sat longer. That is not guaranteed this year: September 2026 listings sold in just 13 days.

  • Run the payment at today's rate. Would you put off buying a home to save $26 a month? Zillow chief economist Mischa Fisher says that’s the payment difference between rates a month ago and rates today. In Fisher’s words, “It’s a Netflix subscription.”

  • Competition has returned quickly. In both cycles, first-quarter prices rebounded and homes sold faster than in the fall. A buyer who waits for certainty may meet stronger competition.

The Bottom Line

The election matters less than the rate and the price. If a home works at today's payment, the weeks around November 3 may be a good time to offer and negotiate. 

If you are in the market, don’t give up! If you are on the fence, please give me a call and we can weigh the pros and cons of moving now vs. waiting for later..   

This post is general market information, not financial or legal advice.

Sources

Local sales data: BridgeMLS, September 2018 through March 2019, September 2022 through March 2023, and September 2026 [ADD: date pulled]. National figures checked October 28, 2026.

 


« Back to Blog Posts